Abstract/Summary
Due to the April 2025 announcement of new, country-specific
United States (US) import tariffs, bilateral trade relationships with the US
have taken center stage in developing countries, especially small,
export-oriented economies like Cambodia. Exports to the US are about 33% of
total Cambodian exports and worth 25% of gross domestic product (GDP) in a
typical year (Figure 1). Cambodia imports heavily the raw materials and energy
required to produce its exports, so a relatively low share of exports are value-added
to the Cambodian economy. While there is no comprehensive estimate of Cambodian
value-added for key export products, a case study of the garment sector (which
accounts for about half of Cambodian exports to the US [Figure 2]) suggests
that roughly 25% of garment sector exports are domestic value-added, largely
through labor.
If other exporting sectors have a similar value-added ratio, this implies that 6% of Cambodian GDP could be at risk due to the US tariff. This may be considered the upper limit of the predicted impact of the high US tariff (36%) on Cambodia’s economy, as it gives a simplistic estimate of the loss if the US market disappeared and Cambodia had no way to divert production to other destinations.
Access the full paper: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF250433